Expected DA From January 2019 - 3% or 4%

Expected DA From January 2019 - 3% or 4%

Consumer Price Index July 2018 & DA August 2018

Consumer Price Index Numbers for Industrial Workers on Base 2001=100. Monthly Index - July 2018 is 301 points.

There has been very big increase of 10 points in July 2018 , this increase of CPI is highest in last four years.

DA as on 1st August is 10.36%. The present DA as on 1st July 2018 is at 9%.

we can expect 3% to 4% DA on January 2019 

Source: central government staff news

Consumer Price Index Numbers on Base 2012=100 for Rural, Urban and Combined for the month of October 2017

Consumer Price Index Numbers on Base 2012=100 for Rural, Urban and Combined for the month of October 2017

 The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has revised the Base Year of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from 2010=100 to 2012=100 with effect from the release of indices for the month of January 2015.

2. In this press note, the CPI (Rural, Urban, Combined) on Base 2012=100 is being released for the month of October 2017. In addition to this, Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) for all India Rural, Urban and Combined are also being released for October 2017. All India Inflation rates (on point to point basis i.e. current month over same month of last year, i.e., October 2017 over October 2016), based on General Indices and CFPIs are given as follows:

All India Inflation rates (%) based on CPI (General) and CFPI
Note: Figures of October 2017 are provisional.

4. Provisional indices for the month of October 2017 and also the final indices for September 2017 are being released with this note for all-India and for State/UTs. All-India provisional General (all-groups), Group and Sub-group level CPI and CFPI numbers for October 2017 for Rural, Urban and Combined are given in Annexure I. The inflation rates of important categories of items are given in Annexure II. State/UT wise provisional General CPI numbers for Rural, Urban and Combined are given in Annexure III. Inflation rates of major States, having population more than 50 lakhs as per population Census 2011, are given in Annexure IV. State/UT–wise Group CPIs are available on the Ministry’s website (www.mospi.gov.in).

5. Price data are collected from selected towns by the Field Operations Division of NSSO and from selected villages by the Department of Posts. Price data are received through web portals, maintained by the National Informatics Centre.

Next date of release: 12th December 2017 (Tuesday) for November 2017.

Authority: http://www.mospi.gov.in/

Expected DA from Jan 2017 : AICPIN for November 2016

AICPIN, Consumer Price Index, CPI, Expected DA, Expected DA from January 2017

Expected DA from Jan 2017 : AICPIN for November 2016

Press Release

Consumer Price Index Numbers for Industrial Workers on Base 2001=100
CPI(IW) Base 2001=100 Monthly Index Letter - November 2016

JANUARY 2016	269
FEBRUARY 2016	267
MARCH 2016	268
APRIL 2016	271
MAY 2016	275
JUNE 2016	277
JULY 2016	280
AUGUST 2016	278
SEPTEMBER 2016	277
OCTOBER 2016	278
NOVEMBER 2016	277
DECEMBER 2016

No. 5/1/2016 - CPI
GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF LABOUR & EMPLOYMENT
LABOUR BUREAU

CLEREMONT, SHIMLA-171004
DATED: 30th December, 2016

Press Release

Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) - November, 2016

The All-India CPI-IW for November, 2016 decreased by 1 point and stood at 277 (two hundred and seventy seven). On 1-month percentage change, it decreased by (-) 0.36 per cent between October and November, 2016 when compared with the increase of (+) 0.37 per cent between the same two months a year ago.

The maximum downward pressure to the change in current index came from Food group contributing (-) 1.33 percentage points to the total change. At item level, Rice, Arhar Dal, Moong Dal, Urd Dal, Groundnut Oil, Chillies Green, Banana, Brinjal, Cabbage, Cauliflower, French Beans, Gourd, Green Coriander Leaves, Lady’s Finger, Methi, Palak, Potato, Radish, Tomato, etc. are responsible for the decrease in index. However, this decrease was checked by Wheat, Wheat Atta, Gram Dal, Goat Meat, Tea (Readymade), Cooking Gas, Electricity Charges, Petrol, Toilet Soap, etc., putting upward pressure on the index.

The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-IW stood at 2.59 per cent for November, 2016 as compared to 3.35 per cent for the previous month and 6.72 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food inflation stood at 1.66 per cent against 2.99 per cent of the previous month and 7.86 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year.
At centre level, Salem reported the maximum decrease of 10 points followed by Bokaro (9 points), Raniganj and Kolkata (6 points each) and Ahmedabad (5 points). Among others, 4 points decrease was observed in 2 centres, 3 points in 8 centres, 2 points in 8 centres and 1 point in 15 centres. On the contrary, Jaipur recorded a maximum increase of 6 points followed by Rourkela and Srinagar (3 points each). Among others, 2 points increase was observed in 5 centres and 1 point in 7 centres. Rest of the 25 centres’ indices remained stationary.

The indices of 35 centres are above All-India Index and other 40 centres’ indices are below national average. The index of Jabalpur, Vishakhapathnam and Ludhiana centres remained at par with All-India Index.

The next issue of CPI-IW for the month of December, 2016 will be released on Tuesday, 31st January, 2017. The same will also be available on the office website www.labourbureaunew.gov.in.

Expected DA from January 2016 which is crucial for 7th CPC Pay

Expected DA from January 2016 is 125% after release of AICPI (IW) for September 2015 – Estimation of Dearness Allowance applicable to Central Government Employees and Pensioners

Ministry of Labour and Employment has released All India Consumer Price Index for the month of September 2015. It has reached 266 which is two point increase over the previous month. Unlike penultimate DA Installment estimation, the pattern of Consumer Price Indices that are available for arriving at expected Dearness Allowances from January 2016 provides us precise idea on expected DA from January 2016. Hence, we thought of making a prediction analysis a bit earlier this time.

In fact, the quantum of DA with effect from 1st January 2016, is very crucial for Central Government Employees and Pensioners, as it is going to determine the DA merged Pay and increase in allowances after implementation of 7th Pay Commission.

As a first step let us list the Actual AICPI – IW which are available as on date, for estimating DA from January 2016.

Month	Actual AICPI-IW
Jan-2015	254
Feb-2015	253
Mar-2015	254
Apr-2015	256
May-2015	258
Jun-2015	261
July-2015	263
Aug-2015	264
Sep-2015	266
Oct-2015	Not released
Nov-2015	Not released
Dec-2015	Not released

Out of 12 Consumer Price Indices which are required to determine DA with effect from January 2016, nine indices are already available. So, consumer price indices for remaining three months will have to be assumed.
We have taken three possible assumptions this time, such that each assumption gives different quantum of increase in DA from January 2016.

Assumption 1: (Assumption of CPI for getting least possible increase in DA from January 2016)

The least increase in DA from January 2016 will be 5% (i.e., DA from January will be 124% ). Under this assumption, DA from January 2016 will be 124% only if CPI falls below the present level of 266 in at least two of three coming months. Though Chances for this scenario coming to reality is possible but the increasing trend in consumer price index from February 2015 negates this possibility.

DA from Jan 2016=	[(254+253+254+256+258+ 261+263+264+266+265+ 265+266)-115.76]*100/115.76
=	124 % (5% increase in DA from Jan 2016)

Assumption 2: (Assumption of CPI for getting maximum possible DA from January 2016):

DA from January 2016 is calculated to be 126%, only if CPI touches 272 from the present level of 266, at least two times in the coming three months with at least one point increase in the remaining month.  We feel that this scenario is remotely possible considering the trend of CPI, which shows only moderate inflation.

DA from Jan 2016=	[(254+253+254+256+258+ 261+263+264+266+267+ 272+272)-115.76]*100/115.76
=	126 % (7% increase in DA from Jan 2016)

Assumption 3: (Assumption of Most Possible Consumer Indices ):

Steady increase in AICPI-IW could be found from February 2015 at the rate of one to two point increase over previous month.

Even if CPI from October 2015 to December 2015 remains at 266 , DA from January 2016 will be 125%. Considering the trend in CPI in the recent months, it could be safely presumed that indices would increase one or two points in the coming months or at least remains in the same level. In both of these cases, DA from January 2016 will be 125%.

DA from Jan 2016=	[(254+253+254+256+ 258+261+263+264+266+ 267+272+272)-115.76]*100/115.76
=	125 % (6% increase in DA from Jan 2016)

It is apparent that Assumption 3 has got better chances out of these three assumptions. Hence we can safely bet that DA from January 2016 will be 125%.

Source: gconnect.in

AICPIN for the month of April 2015

AICPIN for the month of April 2015

No. 5/1/2015- CPI
GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF LABOUR & EMPLOYMENT
LABOUR BUREAU
`CLEREMONT’, SHIMLA-171004

DATED : 29th May, 2015

Press Release

Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) – April, 2015

The All-India CPI-IW for April, 2015 increased by 2 points and pegged at 256 (two hundred and fifty six). On 1-month percentage change, it increased by (+) 0.79 per cent between March, 2015 and April, 2015 when compared with the increase of (+) 1.26 per cent between the same two months a year ago.

The maximum upward pressure to the change in current index came from Food group contributing (+) 1.24 percentage points to the total change. At item level, Rice, Arhar Dal, Gram Dal, Urd Dal, Fish Fresh, Goat Meat, Poultry (Chicken), Milk (Buffalo & Cow), Vegetable & Fruit items, Tea (Readymade), Snack (Sweet & Saltish), Country Liquor, Electricity Charges, Doctor’s Fee, Private Tuition Fee, Tailoring Charges, etc. are responsible for the increase in index. However, this increase was restricted by Eggs (Hen), Onion, Chillies Green, Sugar, Petrol, Flower/Flower Garlands, etc., putting downward pressure on the index.

The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-IW stood at 5.79 per cent for April, 2015 as compared to 6.28 per cent for the previous month and 7.08 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food inflation stood at 5.68 per cent against 6.98 per cent of the previous month and 7.76 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year.

At centre level, Srinagar reported the highest increase of 9 points followed by Bhilai (5 points). Among others, 4 points increase was observed in 14 centres, 3 points in 9 centres, 2 points in 14 centres and 1 point in 18 centres. On the contrary, Giridih centre recorded a maximum decrease of 6 points followed by Guntur (3 points) and Ranchi-Hatia and Godavarikhani (2 points each). Among others, 1 point decrease was observed in 8 centres. Rest of the 9 centres’ indices remained stationary.

The indices of 36 centres are above All India Index and other 42 centres’ indices are below national average.

The next index of CPI-IW for the month of May, 2015 will be released on Tuesday, 30th June, 2015. The same will also be available on the office website www.labourbureau.gov.in.

sd/-
(S.S.NEGI)
Director

Source: http://www.labourbureau.gov.in/Press%20Note%20English%20Apr%202015.pdf

Comparison of Existing and Revised Series of Consumer Price Index

Comparison of weighting diagrams of the existing and revised series of CPI

Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has uploaded on its official portal on 22nd of this month that the comparison of the existing and revised series of Consumer Price Index.

The new and revised consumer price index is based on 2012=100. The first index of revised CPI will be published on 12.2.2015.

We reproduced the press release of the new and revised CPI press release and given below for your information…

Base Year Revision of Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) releases Consumer Price Indices (CPI) for Rural, Urban and Combined, at State/UTs and all India level, w.e.f. January 2011. The Base Year of this series of CPI is 2010=100 and weighting diagrams are based on the results of Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES) 2004-05.

2. Now the CSO is in the process of revising the Base Year from 2010=100 to 2012=100. The weighting diagrams have been prepared on the basis of the results of CES (2011-12). With this revision, the gap between Price Reference Year (Base Year) and the Weight Reference Year has been minimized. Apart from this, a number of methodological improvements have been introduced in the revised series, which are as follows:

Weighting diagrams have been prepared using the Modified Mixed Reference Period (MMRP) data of CES (2011-12), to make consistent with the international practice of shorter reference period for most of the food items and larger reference period for the item of infrequent consumption/purchased. In the old series (Base Year 2010=100), Uniform Reference Period (URP) data were used.

In the existing series of CPI, COICOP (Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose), an international standard classification, is being followed broadly, whereas in the revised series, it would be completely followed, except a few deviations which are necessary for Indian context.

The Geometric Mean, instead of Arithmetic Mean being used in the old series, of the price relatives with respect to base prices would be used to compile elementary/item indices.

In case of PDS items, prices of Antyodaya Anna Yojanna (AAY) have also been included in addition to Above Poverty Line (APL) & Below Poverty Line (BPL) prices being taken in the existing series.
Due to change in the consumption pattern from 2004-05 to 2011-12, the weighting diagrams (Share of expenditure to total expenditure) have changed. A comparison of weighting diagrams of the existing and revised series is given in the table below:

Table: Comparison of weighting diagrams of the existing and revised series of CPI

4. In the CES (2011-12), some of the items of CES (2004-05) were dropped from the schedule and a few new items were added. Market survey was conducted to identify shops, fix specifications and collect prices of the new items. Based on the availability of prices, a few new items have been included in the revised series. At the same time, some of items of the existing series have been dropped, in respect of which, prices have not been reported for quite a long period of time. Accordingly, the number of priced items has changed from 437 to 448 in rural and from 450 to 460 in urban at all India level. The number of priced items varies from State to State. If a particular item has occurred in any State, that item has been considered in the All India item basket. In the revised series, 11 new priced items have been added, without dropping any item, in rural sector at all India level. In case of Urban, 7 priced items have been dropped and 17 new priced items have been added.

5. Adopting the aforementioned improvements in methodologies, the first series (revised) would be compiled for the month of January 2015 and released on 12th February 2015. In order to estimate the old series of CPI, using the revised series, a linking factor would be provided. The year on year inflation rates for each month of 2015 would be compiled and released, with the respective press release, using the Linking Factor. From January 2016 onwards, the inflation rates would be compiled using the actual CPI of the revised series, as the indices for a given month of the year 2015 and 2016.

Expected DA from Jan 2015 – AICPIN for the month of September 2014

Expected DA from Jan 2015 – AICPIN for the month of September 2014

No.5/1/2014- CPI
GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF LABOUR & EMPLOYMENT
LABOUR BUREAU

‘CLEREMONT’, SHIMLA-171004:
Dated the 31st October, 2014

Press Release

Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) – September, 2014

The All-India CPI-IW for September, 2014 remained stationary at 253 (two hundred and fifty three). On 1-month percentage change, it remained stalic between August, 2014 and September, 2014 when compared with the rise of 0.42 per cent between the same two months a year ago.

The largest downward pressure to the change in current index came from Food group contributing (-) I .04 percentage points to the Lotal change. At item level, Fish Fresh, Poultry (Chicken). Chitlies Green. Ginger. Onion, Tomato, Brinal. French Beans. Lady’s Finger. Apple, Sugar, Medicine (Allopathie). Petrol. etc. are responsible for the decrease in index. However, this decrease was restricted to sore extent by Rice, Wheat Atta, Arhar Dal, Potato, Cauliflower. Tea (Readymade), Snack Saltish, Bidi, Cigarette, Electricity Charges, Cinema Charges, Toilet Soap. Tailoring charges. etc.. putting upward pressure on the index.

The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-1W stood at 6.30 per cent tbr September, 2014 as compared to 6.75 per cent for the previous month and 10.70 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food inflation stood at 6.46 per cent against 7.63 per cent ot’ the previous month and 13.36 per cent during the corresponding month of the pre ious year.

At centre level, Goa reported a decrease of 10 points followed by Nagpur (5 points). Among others, 4 points fall was observed in 6 centres. 3 points in 4 centres. 2 points in 9 centres and 1 point in 19 centres. On the contrary, Tripura recorded the maximum increase of 6 points followed by Lucknow & Jalpaiguri (4 points each) and Rourkela & Rangapara-Tezpur (3 points each). Among others, 2 points rise was registered in 8 centres and 1 point in 12 centres. Rest of the 13 centres’ indices remained stationary.

The indices of 37 centres are above and other 41 centres’ indices are below national average.

The next index of CPI-1W fut the month of October, 2014 will be released on Friday, 28 November. 2014.
The sanie will also be available on the office website www.labourbureau.gov.in

sd/-
(S.S.NEGI)
Director

Source: Labour Bureau

AICPIN FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL 2014 – PRESS RELEASE ISSUED BY LABOUR BUREAU

AICPIN FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL 2014 – PRESS RELEASE ISSUED BY LABOUR BUREAU

Labour Bureau,

Government of India

Press Release

Consumer Price Index Numbers for Industrial Workers on Base 2001=100

CPI(IW) Base 2001=100 Monthly Index Letter – APRIL 2014

JANUARY 2014	237
FEBRUARY 2014	238
MARCH 2014	239
APRIL 2014	242

AICPIN FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL 2014 -   Press Release of CPI-IW for April, 2014:

No.5/1/2014-CPI

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF LABOUR & EMPLOYMENT

LABOUR BUREAU

‘CLEREMONT’, SHIMLA-171004

DATED: the 30th May, 2014

Press Release

Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-I W) – April, 2014

The All-India CPI-1W for April, 2014 increased by 3 points and pegged at 242 (two hundred and forty two). On 1-month percentage change, it increased by 1.26 percent between March, 2014 and April, 2014 when compared with the rise of 0.89 percent between the same two months a year ago.

The largest upward pressure to the change in current index came from Food group contributing 2.53 percentage points to the total change. At item level, Rice, Wheat, Wheat Atta, Moong Dal, Fish Fresh, Goat Meat, Milk (Buffalo), Vegetab’es & Fruits, Sugar, Electricity Charges, etc, are responsible for the increase in index. However, this increase was restricted to some extent by Petrol putting downward pressure on the index.

The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-1W stood at 7.08 percent for April, 2014 as compared to 6.70 per cent for the previous month and 10.24 percent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food inflation stood at 7.76 per cent against 7.50 per cent of the previous month and 12.39 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year.

At centre level, Angul-Talcher, Amer and Asansol recorded the maximum increase of 7 points cach followed by Ludhiana, Ernakulam, Kodarma, Giridih and Tiruchirapally (6 points each) and Nagpur, Ghaziabad, Rangapara-Tezpur. Salem and Jabalpur (5 points each). Among others, 4 points rise was registered in 12 centres, 3 points in 16 centres, 2 poInts in 24 centres and 1 point In 8 centres. On the contrary, Munger-Jamalpur reported a decline of 4 points. Indices of remaining 4 centres observed no change.

The indices of 36 centres are above and other 41 centres are below national average. The index of Munger-Jamalpur is at par with all-India index.

The next index of CPI-1W for the month of May, 2014 will be released on Monday, 30 June, 2014. The same will also be available on the office website www,labourbureau.gov.in

sd/

(S.S.NEGI)

DIRECTOR

Source: http://labourbureau.gov.in/Press_IW_APR2014.pdf

Source: http://labourbureau.nic.in/MIL_APR_2014_E.pd

Statement of Srikant Kumar Jena on Consumer Price Index

Statement of Srikant Kumar Jena on Consumer Price Index 

Press Information Bureau 

Government of India

Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation 

14-October-2013 17:31 IST

Statement of Srikant Kumar Jena on Consumer Price Index 

Shri Srikant Kumar Jena, Minister of State (Independent charge), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation announced the release of the monthly provisional Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Base 2010=100 along with annual inflation rates for September 2013, compiled by the Central Statistics Office. Final CPI numbers for the month of August 2013 have also been released. 

All India General (all groups) CPI numbers of September 2013 for rural, urban and combined are 137.8, 134.0 and 136.2 respectively.

Provisional annual inflation rate based on all India general CPI (Combined) for September 2013 on point to point basis (September 2013 over September 2012) is 9.84%. The corresponding inflation rates (provisional) for rural and urban areas are 9.71% and 9.93% respectively. Inflation rates (final) for rural, urban and combined for August 2013 are 8.93%, 10.32% and 9.52% respectively.

Provisional annual inflation rates of September 2013 for rural, urban and combined in respect of ‘food and beverages’ are 11.48%, 11.36% and 11.44% respectively.

Source: PIB News